El Niño: what this winter could mean for Alston Moor
17 October 2026
The strongest El Niño on record is building in the Pacific Ocean. It cannot tell us exactly what weather we will get, but it raises the chances of a stormy, wet start to winter and possible cold snaps later on. Now is a good time to get ready.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural change that starts thousands of miles away, in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years the sea there becomes much warmer than usual. This shifts weather patterns around the world, including the jet stream that brings much of our weather to Britain.
How strong is it this time?
Very strong. In September the Met Office confirmed that sea temperatures in the central Pacific had gone past anything seen in an earlier El Niño, making this the strongest on record. The US weather service (NOAA) said on 8 October that it is still growing, with a better than 8 in 10 chance it stays strong or very strong until at least March 2027.
What could it mean for us?
Autumn and early winter: wetter, windier, stormier
The Met Office says El Niño increases the chances of wetter and stormier weather for the UK this autumn and into early winter. Its September outlook said a warm, wet autumn was about one and a half to two times more likely than usual, with a higher risk of flooding later in the season.
On Alston Moor, that could mean:
- power cuts from high winds and fallen trees
- rivers and streams rising quickly, and water on the roads
- roads over the fells closed or blocked
- weak or no phone signal when masts lose power
Later in winter: a higher chance of cold snaps and snow
The Met Office also says that after El Niño peaks, the winds high above the Arctic can weaken, letting very cold air spill south. So the chance of cold snaps and snow rises in the later part of the winter. Snow is not guaranteed, but being snowed in for several days is a real possibility up here.
What it does not mean
El Niño shifts the odds. It is not a forecast for a particular day or week. The Met Office says it is only one of several things that affect our weather, and a record-breaking El Niño does not automatically mean record-breaking weather in the UK. The sensible approach is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Lessons from past winters
Storm Desmond, December 2015. During the last very strong El Niño, the Met Office had expected a wet, stormy start to winter. Desmond brought record rain to Cumbria, flooded around 5,200 homes in Cumbria and Lancashire, and cut power to tens of thousands of homes in the North East. That December was the UK's wettest month on record.
The Beast from the East, February and March 2018. This was not an El Niño winter, but it shows what a late cold snap can do. A sudden warming high above the Arctic sent freezing air from the east across Britain, with heavy snow and drifts. This is the kind of event the Met Office says El Niño can make more likely towards the end of winter.
Get ready now
Power cuts
- Keep torches, spare batteries and a battery or wind-up radio where you can find them in the dark.
- Charge phones and power banks when storms are forecast.
- Report a power cut by calling 105. It is free.
- If you use electrical medical equipment, or you are older or disabled, ask your electricity supplier to add you to the free Priority Services Register.
Flooding and roads
- Sign up for free flood warnings from the Environment Agency (Floodline: 0345 988 1188).
- Never drive or walk through flood water. It is often deeper and faster than it looks.
- Check road conditions before you set off, and tell someone where you are going.
- Keep a blanket, warm clothes, food, water and a phone charger in the car.
Snowed in
- Keep a few days of food and drinking water in the house.
- Order repeat prescriptions early.
- Top up heating oil, gas, coal or logs before the weather turns.
- Know how to turn off your water in case pipes freeze and burst.
Look out for your neighbours
- Check on people who live alone, are older or have health problems, especially during storms, power cuts and snow.
- Swap phone numbers with neighbours now.
- If you are worried about someone, contact the AMERG team through this website. In an emergency, always call 999.
Where to get updates
- The status banner at the top of this website changes automatically when the Met Office issues a weather warning for North West or North East England.
- Check the Met Office website or app for forecasts and warnings.
- For more advice, see the Prepare page in the menu at the top of this website.
NOAA's next El Niño update is due on 12 November 2026. We will keep an eye on it and update you if anything changes.
Sources: Met Office; NOAA Climate Prediction Center (8 October 2026); Environment Agency.